By the close of 2017, the global CO2 emissions, generated by fossil fuels and industries are projected to rise by two percent compared to 2016, according to the Global Carbon Project's annual report published on Monday.
UEA's Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research director Corinne Le Quéré said in a statement, "With global Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below two degrees Celsius, let alone 1.5 degrees Celsius".
The Global Carbon Project published articles simultaneously in three journals on Monday: a detailed overview of their work in Earth System Science Data, a short analysis of how unsafe rising emissions are in Environmental Research Letters, and a call for more nimble monitoring of the Earth's carbon flows in Nature Climate Change.
"With global Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2ºC, let alone 1.5ºC, she said".
An estimated 37 billion metric tons of Carbon dioxide will be released this year, 2 percent more than 2016 and marking an end to a three-year hiatus in pollution growth driven by less-wasteful energy use that had given many people hope emissions had peaked. The budget, which refers to the amount of carbon we can release into the atmosphere before we exceed climate change targets, has been determined by the Global Carbon Project.
"Every year that emissions increase means we either have to reduce emissions more later or we will have higher levels of climate change".
But the GCP, a global research project within the Future Earth research initiative on global sustainability, says that while emissions may prove to have risen by 2% in 2017, it is not possible to say whether this is a return to growth, or a one-off increase.
China's emissions account for 28% of global emissions.
The group, which helped organize three research groups in concert to come to the conclusions, attributed the carbon growth - likely to be 2 percent year-over-year - to increasing emissions in China and developing nations from burning fossil fuels, aligning with economic growth.
"The past three years were quite exceptional in so far as that in the whole record, it's the first time that we saw emissions not growing at the same time as the global economy was growing quite strongly", he said.Worldwide, 21 countries, including the US, Denmark and France, have reduced their Carbon dioxide emissions over the last ten years while achieving economic growth.
CO2 emissions are projected to go down in America and the European Union, by 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent respectively - both smaller declines than during the prior 10 years.
"Several factors point to a continued rise in 2018", warned Robert Jackson, another co-author of the report, co-chair of Global Carbon Project and a professor in earth systems science at Stanford University.
The remaining countries' emissions, representing about 40% of the global total, are expected to increase around 2.3% (+0.5% to +4%) in 2017. Rising carbon dioxide emissions are generally associated with a rising GDP, but the report noted that 22 countries lowered their emissions while their economics grew as well.
The Global Carbon Budget is produced by 76 scientists from 57 research institutions in 15 countries working under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project (GCP).
This seemingly arcane Earth science research is critical to the practical future of the Paris Agreement. "That transition is being driven by the low cost of new renewable infrastructure, and it's being driven by new consumer preferences".
Persistent uncertainties exist in scientists' ability to estimate recent changes in emissions, particularly when there are unexpected changes as in the last few years.
This is the first rise in global emissions for four years.
Professor Le Quéré said: "The Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement will occur every five years, and this puts vast pressure on the scientific community to develop methods and perform measurements that can truly verify changes in emissions within this five-yearly cycle".