IEA cuts oil demand forecast

Growing Energy Needs Met by Renewables and Gas

US oil and gas 'resurgence' expected as global demand grows

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018. Indeed, the IEA also suggests that demand for oil will remain supported by lower prices, going forward. If the standards stay at today's levels, the USA would remain a net oil importer in 2040.

The International Energy Agency said the oil industry's hopes for a higher, stable crude prices trading between $50 to $60 a barrel could be dashed soon if the supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions pushing prices upward prove temporary.

"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the US shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.

"The abundance of shale gas in the United States also affects the pace of shale gas development in Canada".

Growth in energy demand is half what it would have been without improvements to efficiency.

While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016.

Global energy needs will rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040, the equivalent of adding another China and India.

Myllyvirta said worldwide targets to curb global warming and reduce deaths from air pollution nevertheless require a greater commitment to renewable energy sources.

Another milestone will be reached soon after: By the late 2020s, the US - which only lifted its ban on oil exports in 2015 - will ship more oil to foreign markets than it imports.

"Asia's growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG (by 2040), with exports from the USA accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market", the IEA said.

"Canada is well placed to export oil to China, although this is dependent on the construction of additional export capacity to bring inland production to the Pacific coast", the IEA said. Next year, demand is seen hitting 98.9 million bpd, up 1.3 million bpd from this year.

Meanwhile events in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's kingpin, "have added extra momentum to the rally that has driven oil prices from lows of $45/bbl (Brent) in late June to around $63/bbl recently", the IEA said.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.

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