"In the House, the best-case scenario is to try to keep loses to a minimum", said Thomas M. Reynolds, a former congressman from NY who led the House Republican campaign committee when they lost power after the 2006 midterm elections.
"The model predicts that the Republicans will lose 38 seats in the House, a number that would give the Democrats a majority in the next Congress", he writes.
Issa and Royce are the 31st and 32nd Republicans in the House to announce he won't be running again in 2018; Democrats have just 15 open seats, by contrast. The candidates include Dana Point's Diane Harkey, who is the chair of the California State Board of Equalizaiton; the San Deigo Union-Tribune reported Oceanside's Rocky Chavez, now the Assembly member of the state's 76th district; and Joshua Shoonover, a patent attorney and engineer with a degree in chemical physics. Four are Democrats: Applegate, Mike Levin, Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs.
U.S. Representative Ed Royce, the chairman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, said on January 8 that he will not run for another term in Congress. As the Los Angeles Times points out, California's 49th district has changed since then, with growing Latino and Asian populations, and in the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in Issa's district.
Officials from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee immediately released a statement cheering Issa's decision as a victory for California's 49th District and the country as a whole.
Issa was already seen as vulnerable in 2018. While Senate District 17 has one Democrat - Phyllis Hatcher - and three Republicans - Brian Strickland, Ed Toney and Nelva Lee - running for office.
Shelly Simonds, the Democratic candidate for a Virginia House of Delegates seat, conceded the election to Republican David Yancey on Wednesday, marking the end of a wild election that came down to picking names from a bowl.
Shawn Steel, a member of the Republican Party of California, said Royce's announcement was "a shocker" and that the congressman was definitely not having a "re-election problem".
Issa first took office in 2001, and he won his most recent election by a margin of just 1,621 votes.