Whom Do Red-State Democrats Fear Most?

Royal Thai Navy via AP

Royal Thai Navy via AP

"I believe the overwhelming view of the Republican Conference in the Senate is that this nomination should not be filled, this vacancy should not be filled by this lame duck president". John McCain, R-Ariz., at home getting treatment for brain cancer.

Barring any unexpected discoveries, do you expect Kavanaugh's nomination to be successful? The ease of Supreme Court confirmations depends, in part, on electoral politics in the Senate.

"This dichotomy", Schoen continued, "is what leaves Democrats running for reelection in red states with the tough choice". But they hope to gain support from a handful of Democrats who are up for re-election in states where Trump is popular.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer promised to opposed Judge Kavanaugh's nomination with everything he has.

One issue that will be of particular interest to both Democratic and Republican senators is an opinion expressed in some of Kavanaugh's previous writings, particularly in a 2009 article published in the Minnesota Law Review, that the president should be exempted from criminal prosecution, indictment, and being civilly sued while in office to prevent distraction and harms to the federal government's function. It's a Supreme Court justice, this is a lifetime job.

"They are a conservative institution, not only politically, but institutionally". His wife, Ashley Estes, served as personal secretary to George W. Bush. If Kavanaugh replaces Kennedy, he will occupy a position close to the far end of the conservative spectrum - between Justices Thomas and Gorsuch - and significantly strengthen the majority.

"He's already pretty much stated that he doesn't think it's appropriate to even investigate a sitting President, which I find kind of freakish", King says.

He not only is a Constitutional Law expert, but Fitzpatrick also knows the thinking of a Supreme Court Justice.

Kavanaugh is the third high-level Trump appointee to be a graduate of Georgetown Preparatory School.

He has also usually sided with employers in labor law cases.

Many conservatives have also praised Trump's selection. On the Supreme Court he could help change it. "Plus, Kavanaugh is 53 years old, that's one year younger than I am".

Like NCJW, the Jewish establishment tends to take progressive stances on domestic issues such as reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, voting rights, gun control and separation of church and state. Kavanaugh has stated that he considers Roe v. Wade binding and would seek to uphold it, though he has ruled in some cases to place restrictions on abortion.

Orthodox groups are likely to welcome a court that protects public religious expression over strict separation, as it did in recent rulings confirming a baker's right to refuse to bake a cake for a same-sex wedding. And there is no record of Kavanaugh favoring overturning judicial precedents. That's something that Paul, who has a strong libertarian streak, has been vocal about opposing.

Warren said Monday after the president's announcement that it meant Trump is hearing the "hoof-beats" of an impending investigation, and Booker insisted that Kavanaugh's confirmation could not proceed.

Still, Paul is No. 2 on the list because he hasn't issued his support yet. Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, told reporters before a closed-door meeting with Kavanaugh Wednesday.

Calls to put party politics aside are likely to go unheard in Washington. If he gets a "no" vote from all Democrats, he loses seats. Unlike Murkowski, she voted for President Barack Obama's two Supreme Court picks, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. "I believe it vital that the President be able to focus on his never-ending tasks with as few distractions as possible", Kavanaugh wrote.

By fall, the nomination may turn on a handful of senators who will be under enormous pressure ahead of the midterm elections.

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